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A decade after the UK entered into a hasty referendum that divided the country and unleashed disorder, a caution comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.

The government and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the same might transpire with a referendum on a unified Ireland, initiating upheavals for which no one is prepared.

That conveys the caution from two prominent writers from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.

Administrative Institutions Not Ready

The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a potentially tense and monumental public vote.

"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can build support swiftly," O’Toole remarked. "It is my view that the political architecture of our region remains extremely volatile."

Released Volume Seeks to Encourage Dialogue

The team have examined the governmental, financial and societal rationales for any structural alteration in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.

They aim to provoke discussion on the issue with a tour of lectures that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.

"What troubles everybody, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated O’Toole.

"We should prevent a referendum on a binary, unclear proposal whose results have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an highly divided society where people who have lost are unable to accept defeat and the those successful are uncertain quite what it is that they have achieved."

Legal Framework

Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a referendum on Irish unity if it appears likely that a most voters would approve.

Sinn Féin and other nationalists claim this point is looming, and a organisation named pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists minimise the prospect, making it uncertain whether or when there could be a referendum.

Absence of Serious Debate

Partisan language supporting and opposing unity has obscured the shortage of serious debate, stated McBride.

"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the concept but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to achieve it has largely not occurred. Much has occurred in universities but very few elected officials or advocates want to engage with the fundamentals. As an example, which kind of country would you want? Centralised? Federal?"

Publication's Method

In the book, none of the commentators endorses unity or the status quo. Each authors two pieces that strive for impartiality in presenting the case for a united Ireland and the argument against, assembling financial and societal statistics, historical precedents and structural examples.

Debates encompass flags and symbols, levies, medical care, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to educate and provoke discussion.

"There's huge interest in the subject but there hasn't quite been a discussion," stated the writer. "Discussion indicates an recognition of the notion that there may exist good arguments on each side."

Parallel Votes

A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate report they prefer unification but reject increased taxation or implementing a new flag to recognise pro-UK communities' British culture.

"Policymakers in Ireland does need to determine what the proposal from nationalist groups is beyond just saying: 'We want a unified Ireland and we value you'," remarked the commentator.

Possibility of Referendum

McBride believes a national vote in his lifetime is possible and that it may take place abruptly. "It is possible just a mad or a ill-advised or a feckless secretary of state who states: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"

Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have credible, justified points, he stated. "Somebody will win in this matter and somebody will ultimately be defeated but all factions has possesses important lessons to acquire from the other's viewpoints."

Call for Broader Debate

Westminster should join the debate, urged the analyst. "This is about Britain. It is a British question as much as it is an Irish matter."